Alcoa Breaks Earnings Report Tradition, Marks End of a Stock Market Era

Kicking off this Friday is the fourth quarter earnings season that is anticipated to mark the end of a stock market era.

 This is because this Friday’s earnings reports will take off with three banking giants—JP Morgan & Co, Bank of America Corp, and Wells Fargo & Co—on the lead instead of the traditional start off by aluminum titan Alcoa Inc. that has long been starting the earnings season unofficially for years until now.

Alcoa’s sudden earnings calendar change is due to the split of the company into two separate entities—the new Alcoa Corp. housing its traditional metals business and the parent company now named Arconic Inc. that will house its aerospace vehicle and car parts made of alloys. The split took effect on November 1.

After China caused an aluminum supply glut that sent the alloy’s prices going down, Alcoa struggled to ease up, while its parent Arconic was expected to benefit from solid growth.

The split was the brain-baby of Arconic Chief Executive Klaus Kleinfeld who has been behind Alcoa’s successes since 2008.

Pittsburgh-based Alcoa has long been considered a market darling. It used to be a part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index for 54 years before it had gone from the index in 2013. The alloy company was replaced by sports apparel maker Nike Inc.

Arconic is scheduled to release fourth quarter earnings report on January 31. The company’s event calendar for the rest of the fiscal year showed it will report first-, second- and third-quarter earnings towards the end of the month of the quarter-end, meaning the company’s first reporter streak will now come to a close.

Alcoa on the other hand is scheduled to report on January 24 its fourth-quarter earnings on the market after-hours. The company website doesn’t have its 2017 event calendar posted.

Arconic was up 1.6% at Tuesday’s close, while Alcoa surged 5.1%.

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2017 Marks Bitcoin’s Surge To $1,000

Bitcoin ended 2016 with a bang as the BTC/USD soared past the $1,000 mark with its steady growth over the holidays. The web-based cryptocurrency, last reached the said level three years ago, have surged past central-bank issued currencies gaining a whopping 125 percent in 2016.

Some analysts think that the unstable stance of major economies have led investors into cashing in on the Bitcoin currency.

The uncertainty in the Bitcoin value’s rise and fall has long been observed since its earliest days in 2009 where a coin is merely a penny a piece before peaking to $30—where most have thought that it was the highest the cryptocurrency can go. However, it climbed to more than $200 afterwards falling again to half of that in just a span of a week. In 2014, it unexpectedly shot up to over $1,200 then once again plunged to a fourth of that amount after a year.

For the past two years though, the movement of the cryptocurrency has been more stable.

The recorded movements in 2016 went at around 10 percent which is still considered very volatile compared to formal currencies but relatively lower compared to 2013 trading which had price swings as high as 40 percent.

The huge demand growth in China may have propped up the Bitcoin’s value. This may be due to the 7 percent annual drop in the Chinese currency’s value in 2016—the weakest movement of the yuan over the past two decades. Recent data showed that most trading of the cryptocurrency happened in China for 2016.

The trade of Bitcoin across the globe is deemed to be faster and more confidential and does not need the regulation of any jurisdiction that is why some investors find it more attractive than regular currencies, especially those like China who want to get around capital controls.

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Thanksgiving Day Sales Soar Above $1 Billion

Online sales racked up to over $1.15 billion on Thanksgiving Day. According to data analyzed from 21 billion visits to retail websites released by Adobe Systems Inc., the aforementioned online sales tally is 13.6 percent higher compared to last year’s numbers during the holiday season.

$449 million of the total revenue came from mobile devices. Further breaking the numbers down, $322 million of the mobile devices sales came via smartphones and $127 million thru tablets—58.6 percent more compared to the previous year. To see the figures more clearly, purchases made from mobile phones comprise 39 percent of Thursday’s revenue.

“Mobile has become a standard in the American household, and Thanksgiving has become the day where consumers “shop on the sly,” as nearly a quarter of people we surveyed said they use mobile devices so they aren’t obvious to friends and family at the dinner table,” said Adobe Digital Insights principal analyst and director Tamara Gaffney.

The remaining amount— $702 million—in online sales was produced by desktops.

And the surge in the number of online purchases is likely due to shoppers’ attempt to avoid terrible scrambles that usually happen during these times.

According to Adobe, Thanksgiving Day profits are still on the run for hitting, or at least coming close to, $2 billion. Its analysis revealed that between November 1 and November 22, shoppers spent a total of $25.6 billion online, higher by 3.5 percent in comparison to the same period a year ago.

Despite the large numbers, revenue growth for Thanksgiving Day may lag due to heavy discounting in the early hours of Thanksgiving Day, discounts on tablets, televisions, toys and pet-care items were all bigger as compared to last year’s prices.

Shoppers keen on sales have seen discounts for tablets averaging 25.1 percent compared to last Thanksgiving’s 12.2 percent. Tablets and toys are the most discounted retail purchases. The average markdown for toys reached 16.8 percent—a double of last year’s discount. Appliances also averaged 5.7 percent higher in price decreases compared to the previous year, with televisions inching 6.9 percent and videogame consoles with 5.6 percent.

Brick-and-mortar retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. have been making serious attempts to tap the growing number of e-commerce patrons, while Amazon.com Inc. started offering deals prior to the widely celebrated holiday.

The numbers are isolated to online sales only. Physical retail store revenues haven’t been tallied yet.

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Tesla Motors and SolarCity Officially Become One

Just four days after shareholders gave their thumbs-up, SolarCity is now officially a wholly owned subsidiary of Tesla Motors Inc.

According to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each SolarCity share was converted into 0.11 Tesla shares and that the former company is crossed off of the Nasdaq market quotes.

Friday marked the final trading day for SolarCity with its shares’ last trading price hitting $20.34. Tesla shares for today’s early trading slightly tripped 50 cents at $184.52. This made the original $2.6 billion pricing of the deal end up $600 million short to only $2 billion.

Tesla chief, and also SolarCity chair, Elon Musk plans to make a powerful combo out of Tesla’s alternative-powered cars and electricity storage systems and SolarCity’s current-generating solar panels.

At an attempt to further introduce renewable power to the masses, Tesla launched its integrated solar roof panels that will be available in all Tesla stores alongside their cars and electric-storage units. The said solar roof panels can be installed like the regular ones, both in new construction and replacement roofing. The panels will begin selling next summer.

Musk told Tesla shareholders after the approval on Friday, “I don’t want to 100 percent commit to this yet, but it’s looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account.”

“So the basic proposition would be, ‘Would you like a roof that looks better than a normal roof, lasts twice as long, costs less and by the way generates electricity?’ Like, why would you get anything else?” the electric car frontrunner added.

Skeptical analysts see the merger as a present drawback though, since the two companies have been annual money-losers. They are uncertain if the merger will be much of a synergy as these executives hope them to be.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency projects a decline in global gasoline consumption as the rise of the more energy-efficient electric cars from key players of the emerging industry force demand growth to halt in the next 25 years which will cause weighty consequences for the oil-refining industry as gasoline takes up one in every four barrels in consumption globally.

“Electric cars are happening,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in an interview in London. She also added that the number of these imminent innovations will likely rise above 150 million by 2040 compared to last year’s slightly above a million

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‘Netflix Might Be Overvalued’ Says Analyst

Netflix Inc. closed with a 20 percent gain on Tuesday trade following the company’s shooting revenues in its most recent fiscal quarter earnings report that was significantly higher than previous quarterly prospects which led to several analysts increasing their estimates of the stock’s price targets. The surge was followed by another uptick on early Wednesday trade.

Despite evident gains, the online entertainment pioneer faces a swelling debt and dwindling cash flow thus propagating concerns to some analysts.

Netflix announced its plans to expand further by issuing additional debt. The scope of the planned expansion includes localizing large international markets’ service and producing their own content.

Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst, said in a statement to clients on Tuesday that his worries go over the investors becoming oblivious to the company’s cash burn as its subscriber growth becomes overwhelming.

The analyst also repeated to give the stock an underperform rating but increased share target to $60 from $10, mirroring post-fiscal quarter report buying hysteria. He still believes that Netflix is being overvalued.

“Netflix continues to spend exorbitantly for original and exclusive content, while international profitability remains elusive and competition for both content and subscribers is becoming more fierce,” he said. “Cash burn is unacceptably high, and we are skeptical that the company can successfully build a content library that will justify its high level of spending.”

Netflix also remarked on the growing competition despite having the lion’s share of the market, with Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Video service on the rise as well as Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube.

The company’s quarterly profit was much better than the previous quarters and even went beyond Wall Street’s expectations. But its burn rate is fast picking up as it shells out up-front expenditures to produce its own content.

Cash equivalents toppled 40 percent from $2.3 billion to $1.3 billion during the year-earlier period with the streaming giant’s operational expenses doubling to $462 million from $196 million. A downward trend on cash and equivalents has been evident for the past year with $969 million as of September 30, 2016 as opposed to the $2.1 billion worth of cash equivalents reported in the same time last year.

On the flipside, Netflix recognized that its attempt to penetrate China as part of its expansion plans still has a good long way to go. China, with a broad market potential of 1.4 billion customers, observes strict rules when it comes to the import and screening of foreign content making it hard to operate their own service in the country. However, as a contingency plan, Netflix will more likely opt for licensing their content to existing online service providers in China although this move will only earn them modest gains.

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‘Technical issue’ shuts ASX on Monday trade

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) closed its trading day earlier on Monday due to technical glitches in the trading platform. Up to $3.5 billion in turnover may have been missed by the Aussie share market after a series of technical difficulties and errors disturbed and ultimately closed the first trading day of the week.

Investors and brokerages can’t help but criticize the exchange’s suspension of the day’s trading session due to the same technical error that caused a 90-minute delay to Monday’s open. The issue was earlier said to have been resolved.

ASX Ltd. gave an earlier announcement in their official website regarding the delay saying, “ASX advises that there will be a delay with the opening of the ASX equities market. We are working to resolve this matter and updates will be provided as they become available.”

The exchange operator opened at 11:30 a.m. AEST—an hour and a half delay to the usual 10 a.m. opening—because a function that permits it to manage individual shares on its Nasdaq OMX equity trading platform was experiencing a technical issue, according to Matthew Gibbs, a spokesman for ASX in Sydney.

After a 57-minute trading and several reported operational errors, the ASX decided to close for the day. Shares only worth $1.2 billion were traded during the day, which was, according to CommSec market analyst Steven Daghlian, 20 percent of the share value traded the previous Monday.

Even before trading was halted, the ASX’s shares was already sliding by 2.4 percent in Sydney trading, while Australia’s equity gauge, the S&P/ASX 200 Index, experienced modest change.

“It’s been interrupted trade throughout the day so that’s kept the value and volume very light today,” Daghlian said. “From the ASX200 as an index, it’s just below 5,300 points still. So it’s been pretty quiet overall. If we look at the actual percentage moves so far we’re pretty flat and the market is still pretty close to its worst levels in 10 weeks. This is week six now that the market is in the red.”

With the average daily turnover for this year amounting to about $4.6 billion, ASX was unable to estimate the possible cost of the delays or the loss in overall turnover; but CMC Markets chief market analyst Ric Spooner think that traders may not have lost that much amount due to lack of market moving news on Monday morning.

“There are two drivers of how business might be lost, one is how long the market was closed for and secondly is what news has happened during the period it has been closed,” he told AAP.

“I’d say not a great deal has happened this morning, but we’ll never know.”

With policy meetings by the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve looming this week, and the release of Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) minutes of its recently held meeting on Tuesday, the glitches’ were very untimely for the investors and traders giving a thorough assessment of their positions.

Australia’s equity market is worth $1.1 trillion, making it the sixth-largest in the Asia-Pacific region.

“I’ve never seen anything quite like this before,” Niv Dagan, the Melbourne-based executive director at Peak Asset Management LLC, said in a phone interview. “It’s frustrating because they said they’d fixed it. We’d hope the ASX sorts things out by tomorrow to allow traders to exit positions before the Fed meeting. You’ve got traders and fund managers looking to change their portfolios before that, and unfortunately, they can’t do that.”

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SNAPCHAT RAISE IN VALUATION PAVES WAY FOR POSSIBLE IPO

Snapchat, one of the fastest growing messaging and social media platforms in terms of user base, expressed plans of going public later this year or early in 2017. In a Recode conference, May 2015, Evan Spiegel expressed this. “We need to IPO…. We plan to do this,” the Snapchat CEO and Co-founder said.

Snapchat is a VC-backed tech startup that started only as a class project by Evan Spiegel (current CEO), Reggie Brown, and Bobby Murphy—all former students of Stanford University. It was officially launched in 2012.

What separates it from its messaging and social media app counterparts is its “ephemereal” nature. The application permits its users to take photos, record videos, and add texts and drawings. It’s like your next-door Messenger only that the photos and videos disappear within seconds after the recipient views them. The length of time of the message’s appearance depends on what was set by the sender. It is mostly popular among 13-24 year-olds, the highly targeted demographic market by most tech startups.

This “self-destruct” feature is the main contributing factor to its high user base—with 100 million active users daily. This high volume of traffic attracts many advertisers which Snapchat strategically uses to their advantage. The tech unicorn charges a whopping $750,000 minimum for a day of advertising. This is a direct contrast to the traditional per click payment when advertising online. This proves to be a good strategy though, since with its advertising products being revved up comes the pump to its revenue numbers.

It is expected that in 2017 Snapchat will near $1 billion in advertising revenues. The same amount of revenue is predicted to double in 2018.

Also, the popular messaging app was able to raise $1.8B in an extension to its Series F funding round which further hiked its valuation from $16B earlier this year, to $18B.

This promising boost in revenue and the increase in valuation stress strong investor interest in the company despite freeze in IPO market.

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Cisco to Plunge on the Release of NSA Spying Tools, 7% Layoff

[This market update and analysis is taken from: FSM News.]

The stock of Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), the largest networking company in the world, is poised for a significant decline due to the mysterious release of spying tools created by the US National Security Agency’s elite group of hackers and the massive 7-percent job cuts.

Impact of NSA Hacking Tools Leak on Cisco

A cache of highly sophisticated hacking tools codenamed Buzzdirection, Epicbanana, Egregiousblunder, and Extra Bacon, among others appeared online just recently, and Cisco products were deemed vulnerable to these. ExtraBacon particularly targets Cisco Adaptive Security Appliance firewall.

This latest news can be considered as an international scandal as the multibillion dollar tech corporation’s networking equipment are used by countless of critical state agencies and large companies all over the world. With these hacking tools leaked out into the internet for all to see, anyone from a basement hacker to a professional spy could gain access to them now. Until these cybersecurity flaws are patched, many computer systems, especially those utilizing Cisco products, may be in jeopardy.

Having said that, we believe that the CSCO stock is set to plunge. As shown in the chart below, the company’s stock is trading in the red for two consecutive sessions. As of the time of writing, the stock is trading at $30.72, down by 1.29 percent or 0.40 points. Our analysis shows that if Cisco breaks down the support at the $30.12 level, it could drop much further.

Cisco: A Layoff Machine

In addition to the leak of NSA hacking tools, reports that Cisco will layoff 5,500 employees or 7 percent of its total workforce also casted a grim shadow over the company. CSCO shares tumbled by 1.5 percent during after-hours trading due to this restructuring move, despite reporting fourth quarter earnings results that beat estimates.

On August 14, 2014, the networking corporation also reduced its workforce by 6,000 or around 8 percent of its global workforce despite posting a profit growth of 18 percent. After the announcement, CSCO shares traded nearly 3 percent lower as shown in the chart below.

During the same period in 2013 (August 14, 2013), the company stunned the tech industry when it also announced job cuts of 4,000 positions, even though it managed to top the analysts’ forecasts for that quarter. The result of this move is also a decline in Cisco’s stock.

(Chart taken from Yahoo! Finance)

Basically, every summer starting 2011 to 2014 and then this 2016, the multinational tech giant reveals massive reductions in the workforce. (July 2011= job cuts involving 6,500 employees; July 2012= a reduction of 1,300 positions.)

In general, when companies implement massive layoffs, it typically suggests weakness. With this, it is unsurprising that the company’s stock is moving to the downside each time it announces massive layoffs. Aside from serving as an indicator of weakness, some corporations also execute job cuts in order to minimize their expenses and increase revenues.

According to Adam Cobb, a management professor at Wharton, “Layoffs may look good on paper because they have an immediate effect on costs. Yet in reality there are a lot of costs that layoffs impose on firms that might not show up on an income statement quite as clearly.”

In short, some companies implement this as a strategy to respond to short-term pressures of ramping up profits, achieving earnings targets and making next quarter’s number.

Future Outlook on Cisco Stock

The recent online leak of NSA hacking tools, including one that specifically targets Cisco ASA software, coupled with the substantial reduction in the workforce should lead to a further decline in the networking company’s stock. Having said that, a Sell position is definitely recommended.

Source: www.fsmnews.com

Dollar Strengthens, Gold Slips on Hawkish Fed comments

The dollar edged higher on Wednesday as the outlook for the U.S. interest rate hike turned positive following the hawkish comments from the Central Bank officials.

The U.S. currency regained its strength after hitting a 7-week low against the yen as the positive views of the Federal Reserve officials boosted the outlook for the greenback.

Since late last week, the dollar had been on the defensive against other major currencies as weak economic indicators lowered the anticipation for a near-term rate increase.

But it quickly recovered on Wednesday, following the hawkish comments expressed by the Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who mentioned that two rate increases this year was a possibility, and by New York President William Dudley, who said there is a likelihood that the Central Bank could boost interest rates as soon as September.

“Hawkish views from Fed officials can prompt short covering in the dollar, but they are not sufficient enough to kick off an uptrend,” said a forex analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo.

“This is because the markets now expect only one or two rate hikes this year, when at the end of 2015 they had expected up to four,” he further added, as he believes that the negative economic developments in Europe and Britain following the Brexit affected the decision of the Central Bank and cancelling out any lift from positive U.S indicators.

The dollar index, which measures the greenbacks strength against other major currencies, was 0.3 percent higher at 95.025, recovering from its seven-week lows of 94.426.

The currency markets will await new hints from comments expected from the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and the release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes due today at 2 pm Eastern Time.

“I would not rule out September. If the meeting were today, I think the economic data would justify a serious discussion” of whether to increase rates now, the Atlanta Fed President told reporters after his speech on Tuesday.

Gold Edges Lower on Positive Rate Hike Outlook

The price of safe-haven gold weakened on Wednesday, reversing its gains in the previous session as investors await fresh clues from the minutes of the Fed’s July Policy meeting due to be released later in the day.

It pushed the price of the dollar higher, which was up at 101.100 yen on Wednesday, 0.8 percent higher compared to its previous session’s price of 99.550.

The precious metal is very sensitive to the movement of the U.S. rates, as higher interest rates increases the “opportunity cost” of owning gold, which yields no income and costs money to hold.

Spot gold edged lower at $1,343.78 an ounce.

U.S Gold fell 0.67% or $9.10 to trade at $1,347.80 per ounce by 6:41 am ET.

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Boeing Books 73 Commercial Aircraft Orders

Boeing Corporation’s made 73 commercial aircraft orders in July worth almost $8.86 billion following the successful deal with Mauritania Airlines.

In July, the company delivered a total of 54 commercial aircraft to six lessors and 33 airlines, which includes three aircraft deliveries for Southwest Airlines and another three for Hainan Airlines. From that, Boeing had a year-to-date commercial aircraft delivery of 420.

The American aircraft juggernaut settled successive transaction with four of the largest airlines globally. Before July ended, Malaysia Airlines finalized the order of 25 737 MAX 8 and a 737 MAX 9 worth $2.75 billion. It was followed by the six 787-9 Dreamliners order of Ruili Airlines worth $1.59 billion.

Further, TUI Group, a multinational travel and tourism company headquartered in Germany disclosed the 10 737 MAX 8 orders worth $1.1 billion during the Farnborough Airshow last July 12. Another $2.2 billion worth of order from unnamed companies was made as well.

Among the loyal customers of Boeing include Shandong Airlines, American Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Emirates Airline, China Southern Airlines. Also, Irish-American lessor GECAS and SWISS, Nippon Airways, Air New Zealand, MG Aviation, Ethiopian Airlines, Qatar Airways and Royal Air Maroc are part of the list.

Boeing and Mauritania Airlines

Aside from the mentioned airlines above, Boeing has closed the deal with Mauritania Airlines. The flag carrier of Mauritania ordered for a Next-Generation 737-800 airplane worth $96 million.

Chief executive officer of Mauritania Airlines Mohamed Radhy Bennahi said  “The Boeing 737 is the backbone of Mauritania Airlines fleet because of its efficiency and superior operating economics. The addition of this new 737-800 will greatly expand our network and enhance the overall travel experience of our passengers.”

On the other hand, Van Rex Gallard, vice president of Sales for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, noted the significant contribution of Mauritania Airlines in West African aviation for the past few years.

Mr. Gallard said that the order for one additional 737-800 underlines Mauritania Airlines’ position as a leading carrier committed to providing its passengers with a growing choice of destinations and exceptional in-flight comfort.

Boeing Stock Performance

Previously, shares of Boeing went up 0.38 percent to $132.19 with a market capitalization of 82.79 billion. The American multinational aircraft corporation has a price earnings ratio of 24.28 and a dividend yield of 3.30 percent.

The stock has a 52-week high of  $150.59 and a 52-week low of $102.1. Boeing has a price to book value of 143.18, a return of assets value of 4 percent and a return of equity ratio of 83.9 percent. It has an outstanding shares  of 625.68 million and a total shares float of 623.16 million.

Further, Boeing has a 50-day simple moving average of $130.67 and a 200-day simple moving average of $131.28. The stock is one of the components of Dow Jones and headed by CEO Dennis A. Mulieburg. It has been prominent through its commercial jetliners, military aircraft, missile defense and satellites.

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